Supervisors: Dr Thibaud Porphyre, Prof. Mark Bronsvoort

Project Description:

African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in most of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Eastern Europe. In SSA, ASF is the most cited constraint for smallholder pig keepers, who may lose their capital due to the disease, whilst ASF in Europe is challenging due to circulation of virus between smallholder units and wildlife. In both regions, veterinary services have promoted biosecurity measures on smallholdings to prevent ASF spread, but with little success. However, pig keepers in SSA often sell their pigs without apparent signs in an attempt to limit economic losses. Such behaviours have also been reported in Eastern Europe. There is therefore a trade-off between the short- and long-term economic value of pigs and the perceived benefit of mitigating infectious diseases. Better understanding how the uptake of animal health prevention measures by pig keepers in both situations is essential to ultimately improve the livelihood of rural households.

Here we proposed a multi-disciplinary project between epidemiology, anthropology and economical science exploring how disease-prevention decision making of smallholder pig keepers may affect the spread of ASF in two different contexts in Europe and Africa. We are proposing to develop models of strategic behaviour, using a game-theoretic modelling framework, to unravel the optimal control options for disease prevention measures in different situations, particularly by looking at decision making surrounding the implementation of biosecurity measures as well as those surrounding the emergency sale of pigs. We further aim to identify where cost and benefits would lie for various actors of the pig sector in SSA and Europe as a guideline for future implementations.  

This PhD project will be undertaken within The Roslin Institute, in collaboration with the Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine at the University of Glasgow and with College of Veterinary Medicine, animal resources and bio-security (COVAB) at Makerere University in Uganda. The work will feed into research being conducted within EPIC, Scotland’s Centre for Expertise in Animal Disease Outbreaks, and the CTLGH at the Roslin Institute. The student will work with world-leading research groups in livestock disease epidemiology and modelling. The student will receive comprehensive training in both epidemiology and in mathematical modelling as well as broader training in economics if required. Good computational and programming skills are required, plus an interest in applying these skills to biological problems involving human behaviours.

References:
- T. Porphyre, C. Correia-Gomes, M. E. Chase-Topping, K. Gamado, H.K. Auty, I. Hutchinson, A. Reeves, G.J. Gunn, M.E.J. Woolhouse (2017) Vulnerability of the British swine industry to classical swine fever. Scientific reports 7:42992.
- C. Guinat, T. Porphyre, A. Gogin, L. Dixon, D.U.Pfeiffer, S. Gubbins (2018) Inferring the within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 65(2): e264-e271
- Costard S, Zagmutt FJ, Porphyre T, Roger F, Pfeiffer DU (2015). Small-scale pig farmers” behavior, silent release of African swine fever virus and consequences for disease spread. Scientific reports 5:17074. 

If you wish to apply for this project, please check this link and send your application to this email.